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But there is a road map. Our research into the

forces that have shaped the competitive landscape

in recent decades reveals that “business megatrends”

have features and trajectories in common. Sustainability

is an emerging megatrend, and thus its course

is to some extent predictable. Understanding how

fi rms won in prior megatrends can help executives

craft the strategies and systems they’ll need to gain

advantage in this one.

The concept of megatrends is not new, of course.

Businessman and author John Naisbitt popularized

the term in his 1982 best seller of the same name, referring

to incipient societal and economic shifts such

as globalization, the rise of the information society,

and the move from hierarchical organizations to

networks.

Our focus is on business megatrends, which force

fundamental and persistent shifts in how companies

compete. Such transformations arise from technological

innovation or from new ways of doing business,

and many factors can launch or magnify the

process of change. Business megatrends may emerge

from or be accelerated by fi nancial crises, shifts in

the social realities that define the marketplace, or

the threat of confl ict over resources. The geopolitics

of the Cold War, for example, drove the innovations

that launched both the space race and rapid developments

in the fi eld of microelectronics—ultimately

unleashing the information technology megatrend.

Electrifi cation, the rise of mass production, and globalization

were also megatrends, as was the quality

movement of the 1970s and 1980s. The common

thread among them is that they presented inescapable

strategic imperatives for corporate leaders.

Why do we think sustainability qualifies as an

emerging megatrend? Over the past 10 years, environmental

issues have steadily encroached on

businesses’ capacity to create value for customers,

shareholders, and other stakeholders. Globalized

workforces and supply chains have created environmental

pressures and attendant business liabilities.

The rise of new world powers, notably China and India,

has intensifi ed competition for natural resources

(especially oil) and added a geopolitical dimension

to sustainability. “Externalities” such as carbon dioxide

emissions and water use are fast becoming

material—meaning